Probabilistic risk analysis of corrosion associated failures in cast iron water mains [An article from: Reliability Engineering and System Safety]

This digital document is a journal article from Reliability Engineering and System Safety, published by Elsevier in 2004. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Description:
This paper proposes a method using probabilistic risk analysis for application to corrosion associated failures in grey cast iron water mains. External corrosion reduces the capacity of the pipeline to resist stresses. When external stresses exceed the residual ultimate strength, pipe breakage becomes imminent, and the overall reliability of a water distribution network is reduced. Modelling stresses and external corrosion acting on a pipe involves uncertainties inherent in the mechanistic/statistical models and their input parameters. Monte Carlo (MC) simulations were used to perform the probabilistic analysis. The reduction in the factor of safety (FOS) of water mains over time was computed, with a failure defined as a situation in which FOS becomes smaller than 1. The MC simulations yielded an empirical probability density function of time to failure, to which a lognormal distribution was fitted leading to the derivation of a failure hazard function. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the contribution of corrosion parameters to the variability of time to failure was more significant than the combined contributions of all other parameters. Areas where more research is needed are identified.

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