Right for the Wrong Reasons
This book attempts to use demographics to explain the boom and busts of the past. It uses lots of facts in layman's terms to support its demographic argument. While a lot of the book is very thought provoking, it fails to take into account the number one reason for deep recessions and depressions - and that is easy credit based on funny money (e.g.: Federal Reserve Notes - yes the stuff we use today). The bank note credit squeeze of 1837, the Long Depression of the 1890's, and the Great Depression of the 1930's were all preceded by a credit boom and market bubbles created through the use of fake money (money not backed by an asset). While this country was on a gold standard prior to 1933, previous depressions were caused by banks lending out credit when they had no real money to back it up.
Today I think the author is right, but for the wrong reasons. We now have a pure fiat currency, which can only create money out of worthless paper. Hyperinflation will be the solution to the deflation the FED is currently trying to fight. Gold will most likely spike above $1,200 by 2010, but gold and silver is not mentioned as a hedge in the book.
Don't get me wrong, demographics DO play a major role in the cycles of an economy, but the great bust needs more than just people getting old, it needs a credit bubble. Unfortunately the FED created the bubble, so the authors are probably dead right - just not for the right reason.
The Forgotten Man
The book is excellant and provides detailed perspective on how the 1929 depression was extended by the misguided policies of Hoover and FDR. As someone with the middle name of Delano, it sure dispells the myth that FDR is a great American hero.
Very logical description of the BIG PICTURE
I thought this book was very informative and logical. I think that the "experts" sometimes get lost in the details and completely ignore the BIG PICTURE. It's like they are laying sandbags along a swelling river in front of them and ignoring the growing leaks in the big dam behind them. I realize that this is not an exact science, but the author seems to recognize that as well. Given recent events, he is looking pretty smart right now.
Though the thought of a coming bust is troubling in some ways, I found this book to offer some hope. The author not only outlines the reasons for the coming downturn but offers good ideas for avoiding financial catastrophe. I only wish that I had read it a few years ago.
Time is short
Reasonable theory with his demographic studies. Takes one hour to read and can be very helpful to your financial planning, if in fact the baby boomers can affect the economy like he says.
What this book predicted in 2002 is happening now.
This book may save your life's savings. Please read it. Kudos to the courageous author for writing this remarkable book, and for giving common people timely and fair warning for what lies ahead. We need more people like Mr. Arnold, who makes this world a better place.
(52 reviews)
