The Return of Realism
Like a weatherman who predicts that the current day will be mostly sunny - on the evening news, so too does Kagan state the obvious. And that is, the world is a dangerous place! Still, his book is a bit of reality therapy that ought to be absorbed by the "peacenik's", such as they are, who believe that global harmony is achievable through regulation and negotiation (and by building schools and sharing tea).
When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, many people, to include G.H.W. Bush and the Euro-socialists believed that a "new world order" was dawning. An "order" based on shared principles of democracy, free trade, the rule of law, dialogue and diplomacy; that somehow humanity had finally evolved greed, revenge, self-interest, intolerance, bitterness, and the "will to power" out of its collective psyche. Well surprise, surprise, human nature has reared its ugly head again!
Kagan sees a new paradigm emerging in geo-politics, namely, that in the foreseeable future we will live in a "one-superpower" world, with several other "great powers" all vying for their own interests; the other "great powers" being Russia, China, India, and maybe the EU - if the EU can hold itself together for the next few decades. And the major difference between these powers is that they have governments that are democracies (US, EU, India) versus autocratic regimes (Russia, China, and perhaps Iran, North Korea, and some other rogue, nuke-armed nations).
To help tip the scales toward the "good guys", Kagan calls on the democracies of the world to form a parallel organization to the U.N. - an organization which is currently populated by countries representing every tin-pot dictator, autocratic, kleptocratic, communist, anti-American, anti-Israeli, anti-western, and savagely theocratic regime on the planet. I think this is a grand idea whose time had come about twenty years ago.
Unfortunately, for many,(cf. above: the so-called "peacenik's", Euro-socialists, communists, Islamofascists, and other Jew-haters) the name "Kagan" is synonymous with the "neocon" movement, that is to say, synonymous with all that is wrong with American foreign policy. And so they will dismiss him and this common-sense book without comment.
To the more rational and open minded, however, this book will elicit a reaction of "no duh!" A thin, easy read that states the obvious, but doesn't break much, if any, new ground. It would make a great gift for Orthodox Christmas, Chinese New Year, or Ramadan
Thucydidean Return of Man's Permanent Nature in Global Affairs
The Return of History is a concise and clarifying explanation of the state of geopolitics in early 2008 from a very Thucydidean point of view. The author at a point alludes to the ancient Greek concept of thumos, or a spirited connection with kin, not so much as the unifying concept of our time (as Huntington on a larger scale or Ralph Peters on a tribal scale would have it) but as one of the myriad rocks of man's permanent nature on which the ship of pre-ordained international democratic liberalism has foundered since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The main theme of his book is that there is no Marxian march of history towards a single conclusion, no guarantee that liberal democracy as seen in the west in general and as most powerfully crystalized in the US in particular is the ineluctable result of social progression.
The brief illusion that this was the case in the early to mid nineties started to unravel first with the Balkans, then with 9/11, and has, since the publication of this book, come full circle with the Russian invasion of Georgia (not per se predicted by the author who wrote before the event, but was put forward as both highly plausible and consequential) and the liberal democracies' complete inaction beyond empty words in response. Like the shot heard around the world at Concorde the Russian invasion of Georgia bears out the thesis of this book, that liberal democracy is challenged by other legitimating forms of government, namely autocracy born anew in Putin's Russia, and reformed anew in post Tiananmen China. Towards these pole stars of autocracy much of the world aligns, including North Korea, Burma, Iran, Syria, Venezuela (oddly never mentioned in the book) and a growing number of Central Asian and African countries. Radical Islam is also on the rise, a complicating and consequential factor which can wreak much devastation if unchecked, but one which the author believes can never legitimate itself as a viable alternative to liberal democracy and autocracy. But, importantly, one which autocracy does not mind seeing tying down democracy.
The import of the author's thesis is that the liberal democracies must band together and continue to take an active role in the struggle for what form of government people find most desirable and beneficial, and therefore most legitimate to their needs. To believe otherwise he seems to suggest, to believe that liberal democracy is where human nature evolves to, would logically be to bear as a corollary a belief that the democracies need not have fought either world war or cold war of the past century, and to believe that we are free from having to defend and promote liberal democracy today is just as foolish.
A good, quick and easy to read treatise. Recommended.
A late awakening
Robert Kagan's Return of History has been appropriately named by the author. There is nothing new in this book except skillful writing. Much of these forewarnings in respect of liberal democratic capitalism has been known to foreign policy experts like Huntington, Paul kennedy, etc long ago.
The crux of the matter is not so much to highlight these issues as to look for the causes leading to post cold war developments and disturbances. My book Tracing the Eagle's Orbit does this. Many in developing world knew that the ghost of the bygone era might return in multifarious forms. If at all, it is the American post cold war foreign policy makers who are to be blamed for bringing the contemporary international political situation to such a pass.
My book rightly suggests in ch. 6 that a plastic surgery rather than a cosmetic change is required to save the international order from a certain anarchy. The United States needs to have a solid introspection and initiate changes to prolong its global domination. Vague ideas about liberal democracy carry little conviction when the United States itself flouts with international regimes.
Robert Kagan, has done well to highlight these disturbing trends but fails to suggest how to strike a balance between use of force and liberalistic approaches.
Gautam Maitra
Author of 'Tracing the Eagle's Orbit: Illuminating Insights into Major US Foreign Policies Since Independence.'
The Return of History
A most disappointing read. I expected much more in depth analysis and found mostly what I read in headlines of various publications. The worst part is that the writer fails to put the pieces together in any way that leads to possible answers for the future. I'd been led to believe that Kagan had powerful insights into where we are and where our options may lead -- instead I found little more than high school level geopolitical history. Don't waste my time.
Superb insight
Well laid out sequel to "Paradise and power". All the more intriguing since it was written before the Russian invasion of Georgia--ominiously predictable from the pages of Kagan's book. Let's hope his transatlantic call to action is heeded.
