Editorial Reviews:
"In The Well-Timed Strategy, Navarro provides a useful primer on business cycle risks and opportunities. Recognizing that business success depends most of all on human capital, he makes the crucial observation that the trough of a recession is the best time to find good people and the most important time to focus on retaining them. This and other insights about investment, production, and marketing give today?s executives a useful checklist for building and maintaining competitive advantage." ?Michael Milken, Chairman, The Milken Institute "Navarro?s conclusions should be an integral part of any management strategy playbook. Timing is indeed everything, and this book shows you how to master it for a successful business." ?Bruce Karatz, Chairman and CEO, KB Home "The business cycle bedevils all companies, yet few take it into account when plotting strategy. Peter Navarro provides a powerful set of tools, insights, and examples that will help every executive master the all-important art of timing." ?Nicholas G. Carr, Author of Does IT Matter? "What surprised me the most about this wonderful ?Big Ideas? book was not how incisive, useful, and far-ranging its strategic prescriptions are but rather how much fun I actually had reading it." ?Mark Zandi, Chief Economist and Co-Founder of Economy.com "The overriding approach to real estate success used to be ?location, location, location,? but it is an absolute fact that ?timing, timing, timing? is the ultimate driver behind maximizing return on investment. Peter Navarro illustrates that point with compelling examples of some of the best companies that have proactively navigated the business cycle as well as those that have faltered. The Well-Timed Strategy is an insightful look into the critical concept of knowing not just how to make a move, but more importantly, when." ?Richard S. Ziman, Chairman and CEO, Arden Realty, Inc. "Don?t miss this guide to surviving?and thriving?during topsy-turvy industry fluctuations." ?Kirkus Reports "This book is a virtual tour de force of strategies and tactics being used by some of best ?Master Cyclist? business executives in the world. Using a wealth of real-world examples, Navarro clearly explains the dos and don?ts of timing important executive decisions to the business cycle?so much so that after reading this book, you?ll view the business cycle more as a strategic partner rather than an economic adversary." ?Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director, Economic Cycle Research Institute "A path-breaking book full of useful war stories from the front lines. As Lance Armstrong would advise, you don't win a race in the flats?but in the mountains, by managing the ascents and descents better than your competition. Navarro shows us how the same is true for how businesses navigate the ups and downs of the business cycle." ?Stephan G. Richter, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief, theGlobalist.com "Peter Navarro is that rare academic whose expertise spans both strategic management and technical economics?and writes like a dream. Here, he clearly explains how an understanding of the economics of business cycles gives managers a huge advantage in strategic planning while offering many compelling examples of how companies have succeeded or failed according to their reading of the impact of macroeconomics on their industries." ?Peter Passell, Senior Fellow at the Milken Institute and Editor of the Milken Institute Review "Peter Navarro has written a remarkable, path-breaking book about strategic management of the business cycle that is destined to be a classic in both corporate boardrooms and business schools. Using a rich array of real world examples, he shows why corporate leaders must always be proactive, often counter-cyclical, and ever nimble." ?Bernard Baumohl, Executive Director of the Economic Outlook Group and Author of The Secrets of Economic Indicators Most companies ignore one of their best opportunities for honing competitive advantage: proactively managing the business cycle and broader macroeconomic turbulence. In The Well-Timed Strategy, Peter Navarro reveals why the business cycle is an even more powerful P&L driver than you may realize, and demonstrates how it can be profitably managed. Navarro distills a set of clear and compelling strategies and tactics for managing economic upswings and downswings, oil price spikes, currency crises, trade wars, and other severe macroeconomic shocks. Navarro?s "Master Cyclist" management principles address everything from inventory, production, and supply chains to marketing, pricing, acquisitions, and long-term capital investment. Navarro presents examples and case studies from around the globe, ranging from high tech to heavy industry, from Broadcom, Micron, and Cemex to Paccar and Xilinx, from Chinese entrepreneurs to large multinationals. Clear, concise, and exceptionally readable, The Well-Timed Strategy makes complex business cycle strategy and tactics easy to understand?and even easier to act upon.
Customer Reviews:
Displaying 1 to 5 of 9 total reviews (Page 1 of 2):
 Making informed decisions on when to move (and when not to)...
There are plenty of business books that tell you *what* to do and *how* to do it, but few which talk about *when*. That's the key difference in Peter Navarro's The Well Timed Strategy: Managing the Business Cycle for Competitive Advantage. By understanding the timing of business cycles, a business person can make moves that position them well for the coming up- or down-tick in the economy.
Contents: Strategies and Tactics of the Master Cyclist Executive; Countercycling Your Capital Expenditures; The Acquisitive Master Cyclist Buys Low and Sells High; The Art of "Cherry Picking" and Other Well-Timed Tactics of the Human Resource Manager; "Macromanaging" Your Production, Inventory, and Supply Chain; Master Cyclist Marketing Through the Business Cycle Seasons; Pricing the Cycle and Managing Credit and Account Receivables; Proactive Profiting from Oil Price Spikes, Interest Rate Hikes, and Exchange Rate Risks; When You Can't Beat the Business Cycle, Hedge Its Risks!; Surviving - and Prospering from - the Economic Shocks of War, Terrorism, Drought, and Disease; The Master Cyclist's Favorite Forecasting Tools; Concluding Thoughts; The Master Cyclist Project's Treasure Trove of Data and All-Star Team; A Business Cycle Primer; Notes; Index
Navarro argues that a close examination of the business cycle (becoming a Master Cyclist) can help you make the right choices for your business in terms of when to do certain things. Based on economic forecasting tools (covered near the end), it's possible to have a better than average view into where the economy is headed, whether it's a recession or an expansion. These indicators, when followed, almost appear to make you look like a bit of a contrarian. If a booming economy has signs of an oncoming recession, the cyclist will take actions like dramatically cutting back on capital expenditures. Most other businesses will still be spending like there's no tomorrow. But when the economy turns, these spending companies are caught with large debt payments with high interest. The cyclist, however, is sitting on a pile of cash at a time when cash flow is king. Continuing to follow the indicators can show when the recession is starting to ease. The spending companies are all cut to the bone at that point, while the cyclist is able to start expansion with little competition and cut-rate pricing. Same with advertising... Spending on advertising at the peak of the recession can often be more effective as everyone else has cut their ad budgets. Fewer voices, more visibility. Then when the economy turns, guess who has mind share heading into the recovery?
I think the points made here are very valid and bear consideration. I will admit to thinking on more than one occasion that "hindsight is 20-20" when reading some of his examples. Granted, many of the bone-headed moves *were* just plain ill-advised and stupid. But at the time, you don't have the luxury of knowing how the story turns out. Also, many of the company demises outlined here are presented in such a way that it makes it look as if there was a single reason for the collapse. In reality, company failures are normally a combination of things, not just a single failure to do (or not do) something. In any case, the point remains that there are economic signals available to executives that are more often right than wrong. Ignoring them because you have a hunch or you've been reading your own press releases doesn't usually turn out to your advantage.
This is an interesting book to add to your business bookshelf, and it can definitely help you chart your course in these strange economic times...  A savvy strategic approach to managing business cycles
This handy, concise compendium offers managers a series of tips on managing through changing business cycles, and illustrates its advice with intriguing actual cases. The book originated in the five-year "Master Cyclist Project," launched to teach business-cycle management to MBA students at the Paul Merage School of Business at the University of California in Irvine. Author Peter Navarro's lively evidence shows managers who take the right steps but at the wrong times and, thus, invariably meet ill fortune. He also shows managers taking steps that conventional wisdom regards as foolish (e.g., upping advertising during recessions) and meeting with invariable success. It may seem just a bit too neat. But, even if you don't agree with every detail of this analysis, the book's cases are strong and its underlying principles are sound. Ride the business cycle or it will ride you. Just as a contrarian investor buys in bad times and sells when times are soaring, so the counter-cyclical manager invests during bad times and spends cautiously during the good. We recommend this book as a useful antidote to groupthink. Well-Rounded and Useful
"The Well-Timed Strategy" can be applied to you, your company, and your investing. This is a very informative, practical, and useful book that deserves a lot more attention. There's a lot of variety that's relevant and each chapter can be read in the order you choose. The index is very useful to go straight to the topic or concept, also.
Many specific examples and companies are noted, such as Xilinx, Nucor, United Airlines, Intel, Lowe, Soho China, Dupont, Labor Ready, South West Airlines, FedEx, IBM, Cemex from Mexico, the United Airlines Contract, and many more.
One of the many useful points in "The Well-Timed Strategy" is hiring through the the different economic cycles. Tapping the best available talent and also securing the best deal. Here is a paraphrase from page 73: A "Reactive Cyclist" keeps hiring employees at premium wages into the late stages of economic expansion. When the recession emerges they start massive layoffs which often leads to other employees leaving because of low morale. The Master Cyclist use a variety of means at this stage to avoid to pit-falls and also retain talent.
At the bottom of the recessionary trough the labor pool will be deepest and wage pressures least. This is the time to hire the most talented employees at bargain wages (Navarro, 73). By "Cherry Picking" this Master cyclist maintains a solid competitive advantage in getting a skilled and talented workforce and lower labor costs (Navarro, 73).
Spending throughout the cycles:
Be watchful of too much capital expansion during boom times. A concept referred to as "build the empire syndrome." This creates large cash flow needs. Revenue may fall. Cut back when a recessions seem imminent. The Master cyclist will engage in capital expenditures during a recession, to be ready for new innovation when the recovery begins (Navarro, 37).
A good detailing of diversification is covered. Once case study is IBM vs. Hewlett-Packard. IBM is diversifying into such areas as outsourcing, web hosting, and services, why HP remain in computer hardware.
There are many well-chosen quotes by known industry leaders, and they are edited to fit perfectly with the chapter and topic at hand, to augment the point Peter Navarro is making. (Even Robert Frost's "Road Not Taken" gets a plug.)
The constant array of natural and human-made events affect the cycle and influence what needs to be done and what is, actually done. The concept of "Chaos Theory," when a butterfly flaps its wings in China it causes a metaphorical typhoon half-way around the world. El Nino affects coffee and cocoa prices, Tsunamis in South East Asia cause increased demand for medicines to counter the resulting epidemics of cholera and typhoid. A massive earthquake in Taiwan drives up semi-conductor prices. "If it's raining in Brazil, buy Starbucks." The chicken restaurant 'El Pollo Loco' acted swiftly when they foresaw a drought in Australia and the simultaneous mad cow threat hit. They knew the price for beef would increase, followed by chicken, so secured fixed priced contracts before the price spikes (Page 176). Oil prices, Terrorism, disease, war, foreign government subsidies, and many other are listed.
"The Well-Times Strategy" is Well-rounded, useful book. The index is is excellent. Tomorrow Will Not Be Like Today
I always enoy those shows on televiion where people are predicting the future. The overwhelming tendency is for the forecasters to predict that the future is going to continue about what it's doing now. If we're in a recession, they see nothing that looks like it's going to pull us out of the recession. If we're in a boom, the general consensus is that we are just starting a boom and that there's nothing that looks like it means the end of the boom.
Instead we have a lot of evidence that whatever is going on will change. Boom cycles, bust cycles happen. Most companies, it seems, ignore any idea at all of a long term trend. This quarter is down, fire people (really good for morale), cut back everything you can. This quarter is up, try to expand like crazy, making up for lost time -- just in time for the next down turn.
Dr. Navarro understands the business cycle and in this book explains the cycle that business follows with special attention to people, production, credit and so on.
Then there's a chapter on forecasting tools. Knowing what to do is a lot easier if you know what the future holds. Here the model shows weakness. There are a lot of stories about companies that guess right, or wrong about the future. Predicting the future however reminds me of the old saying: 'Predicting the future is easy, it's being right that's hard.' Management talent is doing the right thing at the right time and to the right degree
I love this book. Being a contrarian by nature, I enjoy this way of examining the business cycle for the best strategic moves that often use moving AGAINST the obvious move of the trend. While this is often the correct move, it is oftentimes exceedingly difficult to see and even harder to time just right. Still, the rewards can be great when it can be pulled off.
The book draws on real life examples for the things that work and the things that did not work. The author has a concept of the Master Cyclist (meaning a master of the business cycle) versus a reactive cyclist who always seems to be getting into trouble by doing the wrong thing and too late. The old saying that one shouldn't confuse a bull market with management skill holds true here. It is understandable that people tend to stick with what they THINK made them successful until it is too late, but we shouldn't applaud them for it either.
Another issue about being a Master Cyclist and especially for those times when going against the trend of the majority, is that what the majority trend is tends to change. So, a successful method tends to breed copies, so the way to counter-punch also changes.
Peter Navarro uses the image of a bicycle wheel with the spokes dividing it into a six slice pie to present his points. The six slices the Master Cyclist must master are: Capital Expenditures, Acquisitions & Divestitures, Human Resources Management, Production & Inventory Control, Marketing & Pricing, and Risk Management.
Obviously, not all these topics matter in every situation or for every business. But the Master Cyclist understands which matter and when they matter. He knows when to acquire cash and lower debt. She knows when acquisitions, no matter how attractive strategically, are not worth the price. He knows when to add staff and cherry pick talent from the competition when the competition is shedding staff. She knows how to manage capacity and inventory to not get caught short as things take off and to knot let inventory build up that is not only eating up cash, but is becoming obsolete. She knows how to price for market share and profit and to not pretend they can set prices when they are really are price taking enterprise. And especially, he knows how to manage risk in the best way so that price swings in core commodities don't eat up profits, and when profits are at risks from exchange rates.
This is a very fine book and I recommend it for anyone interested in corporate strategy. It isn't just about doing the right thing, it is also about doing the right thing at the right time and to the right degree. Pulling that off more than once is evidence of real management talent. The only thing I would encourage you to do is to dig into the illustrative stories provided in the book to be sure you understand ALL the details. You know what is in the those pesky little facts.... More Customer Reviews:
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